# # The Ukraine War: Is It Coming to an End? **Nadin Brzezinski** · October 22, 2026 > Original: https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/the-ukraine-war-is-it-coming-to-an-end-bacf4fec96ce ### # The Ukraine War: Is It Coming to an End? ![image](https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/0*mcaafbC8LYnb1fNa.jpeg) First, let me talk about a timeline of how many times we have been told that the war is about to end. And if this sounds like Donald Trump and the Iran war, it is because it is. Ergo, this must be an authoritarian impulse. And the people at Important Stories put together this timeline, which looks familiar. In fact, we know that Vladimir Putin is not ready to end the war, because he is not getting all he wants, and is now convinced he can force Ukraine to capitulate during the winter campaign: Following a three-hour meeting between Witcoff and Putin in St. Petersburg, Yuri Ushakov, an assistant to the geostrategist, assured that “the Ukrainian conflict is now definitely nearing its conclusion.” A brief historical overview of this topic: 🔸 March 5, 2022: Putin stated that the most important part of the “special operation” was almost complete. 🔸 April 7, 2022: Dmitry Peskov assured that the “special military operation” could end in the foreseeable future. 🔸 February 7, 2023: Ramzan Kadyrov predicted that the “special operation” would end by the end of 2023. 🔸 December 13, 2023: Ramzan Kadyrov postponed his prediction to June-July 2024. 🔸 July 5, 2024: Apti Alaudinov, commander of “Ahmad,” promised to soon complete the “special military operation.” 🔸 December 4, 2024: Kadyrov assured that the end of the “special military operation” was just around the corner. 🔸 December 10, 2024: The head of the SVR, Naryshkin, stated that Russia was close to achieving all the goals of the “special military operation.” 🔸 December 19, 2024: Putin indicated that Russia was approaching the completion of the primary tasks of the “special operation.” 🔸 October 24, 2025: Kirill Dmitriev swore that Moscow and Kyiv were close to a diplomatic solution. 🔸 April 29, 2026: Putin promised Trump that the “conflict” was nearing its logical conclusion. 🔸 May 29, 2026: Putin swore that the situation was “approaching its conclusion.” 🔸 July 30, 2026: Medvedev said that Russia was at the point of completing the “special operation.” 🔸 August 31, 2026: Putin whispered to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that Russia was moving towards the end of the war. 🤔️️️️️️ How truly remarkable this war with Ukraine is, because from the very first days after the full-scale invasion, it has been supposedly nearing its conclusion, but it just won’t end. Yes, there is a parallel to Trump and how many times Iran has been ready to surrender. And we will not be ready to get out of that war either, because authoritarians are what they are. And if there is one thing that authoritarians cannot admit, it is that they lost a war. For Putin, this could be personally deadly. So there is that as well. And realize that, in a way, Ukraine could destroy the Federation in similar ways to how Afghanistan brought down the Soviet Union. Also, though, important stories: we know one source of personnel for the Russian Army. And it is not a surprise either. I have said it before: a general mobilization is coming, and in some ways it has started. It is just quiet for the moment: Conscripts are increasingly being pressured to go to war through blackmail and threats. Military recruitment offices are persuading conscripts to sign contracts, taking advantage of the new conscription system. The “Go Away” project has recently received more reports from conscripts who are being forced to sign contracts and sent to the war, according to Ivan Chuviyaev, a representative of the project. “We had 36 such reports in August, and already 50 in September. In the first 13 days of October alone, we received more than 20 reports.” ▪️After the reform that made conscription activities at military recruitment offices year-round, conscripts are now being pressured even before being sent to the army, says Chuviyaev. “Now, there can be several months between the decision of the conscription committee and the actual dispatch to the unit. During this period, representatives of the recruitment office visit the conscripts at home and try to persuade them: ‘Sign a contract, you’ll earn money, why waste a year [as a conscript] in some remote garrison.’ This is the ‘carrot’ method. The ‘stick’ method begins in the unit itself.” Conscripts are promised a “short” 6-month contract instead of a year of compulsory service, but all contracts are now indefinite, notes Chuviyaev. ▪️There is also another type of blackmail: young men are threatened that a contract will be signed for them without their consent. A conscript from the Kaliningrad region, who has been serving for 9 months and has repeatedly refused to sign a contract, was told by a sergeant that “the documents [contract] will be drawn up by us, and they will be signed anyway” — meaning he hinted that the signature would be forged. Threats to backdate documents are not isolated incidents and have recently appeared, says Chuviyaev. ▪️In another report, a relative said that his brother, a conscript, was also forced to sign a contract under threat. After signing the contract, his phone and bank card disappeared — money was withdrawn from the card and used to pay for purchases. The young man is in contact with his family through the phone of a comrade. The unit’s command ignores all the reports. ▪️A 19-year-old conscript from Magadan was forced to sign a contract under threat of being sent to the guardhouse. The reason was a hidden electronic cigarette belonging to one of his comrades. Later, the young man tried to submit a report refusing to sign the contract, but it was not accepted. His relatives contacted the prosecutor’s office, but the unit’s command said that it was pointless. 👉 Military observer “Foma,” using a pseudonym, said on The Breakfast Show that, according to Ukrainian military personnel, there are many former conscripts among the Russian troops advancing between Dobropolye and Konstantinovka (the hottest spots of the war), who were forced to sign contracts. “In some areas, out of 9–10 infiltrators*, all were former conscripts who were drafted in the spring.” *This refers to the tactic of infiltration, i.e., the penetration of infantry in small groups. 🪖We have reported here *that the authorities are planning to send another 1.5 million people to the war and accelerate the pace of recruitment to the front. By law, conscripts cannot end up on the front lines. But if the conscripts sign a contract, they are no longer conscripts. So two weeks of training, and off you go to the front lines. That is all we need to teach you to send you to an assault squad. Oh, never mind that Russia has a demographic problem and that more dead young men are not going to help that issue. But hey, we need more lands in this gathering of lands. Now let me present to you some of the material Russian pupils are learning in school. And to be fair, this refers to no quarter, which is considered a war crime in the 21st century, but it wasn’t limited to the Russian Imperial Army of the early 19th century. But we do not think these men were that great. Russians do, because they are slowly moving towards a regime of no quarter, and we have seen POWs killed after surrender, and they are attacking civilian targets every night: ![image](https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/0*5-s9hCEt5KEBsh-M.jpeg) “Ode to Slaughter.” Schoolchildren to be told about a military feat through the example of a general who was called a butcher: he took no prisoners and allowed soldiers to engage in looting. The “Important Conversations” lesson on October 26 will be dedicated to General Pyotr Kotlyarevsky, a “hero” of the Russo-Persian War of 1804–1813 in the Caucasus, who became famous for his cruelty and tyranny. A monument to him was erected in Crimea after its annexation. 🔹According to the teaching materials for the lesson for grades 6–11, “the goal of the lesson is to form an understanding of Kotlyarevsky as an outstanding military commander, to reveal the concept of patriotism, and to understand the connection between the courage of the commander and his responsibility for people [referring to subordinates]. The materials describe Kotlyarevsky’s life and victories, and at the end, students should answer questions: why is he a hero, and what can they learn from him? 🔹Kotlyarevsky is presented as a brave and resourceful commander who adheres to high moral principles. At the same time, the real facts of his biography are completely ignored: 🔺After the battles for Migri (1810), Kotlyarevsky ordered that no prisoners be taken and that the wounded be finished off (”**those who were found alive were to be impaled**”), because the Russian troops did not have enough people to guard them. A similar order was given during the attack on Aslanduz in 1812. 🔺Before the assault on the fortress of Lankaran, the general promised the soldiers that after capturing it, they would be able to loot it. At the same time, he threatened that his own artillery would fire grapeshot at those who “hesitated” during the assault. According to the “History of the Talysh Khanate,” there are accounts that up to 10,000 people, including women and children, were killed after the capture of the fortress. 🔹The teaching materials cite the epilogue to Pushkin’s “The Caucasian Captive,” where Kotlyarevsky is mentioned in the following lines: “Your path, like a black plague, Destroyed, annihilated tribes…” But he did not become a hero in the eyes of contemporary writers. In 1822, Vyazemsky, in a letter to Turgenev, was indignant at the glorification of the general: “**Poetry is not an ally of executioners** **the poet’s hymns should never be an ode to slaughter.**” 🔹In 2020, in the annexed Crimea, in Feodosia, where Kotlyarevsky spent the last years of his life, a monument to him was unveiled and consecrated (😊). This is a way to normalize what the RuAF is doing in the field, for young people. If they did it back then, maybe it is ok now. I wonder how this lesson will play out in the Northern Caucasus, though. Because that history should read differently in Dagestan and Chechnya. So I guess stay tuned? Then there is this about Yandex, which I am sure is making some of our Techbros pay attention: “I wouldn’t expect a full restoration within a year.” Disruptions to Yandex applications could be prolonged, and new attacks could halt its services for an indefinite period. Launching individual applications doesn’t necessarily mean the entire infrastructure is being restored. Following the attacks on its data centers, Yandex will need to allocate its remaining resources and purchase equipment in a context of growing shortages. What this means for users and businesses is explained by cybersecurity expert Denis ALSHANOV. 📌 Restoring capacity could take from six months to over a year. Alshanov believes that the estimate of replacing equipment in two to three months is unrealistic: “Yandex uses specialized servers, and the demand for equipment is being driven by the construction of AI data centers around the world. I wouldn’t expect a full restoration within a year, but perhaps a significant portion could be restored within six months.” In addition to servers, the cooling and power systems may also need to be restored. 📌 Services will be restored gradually, using the available resources. According to the expert, Yandex had previously conducted drills to shut down two data centers, but these primarily focused on key services. There are not enough reserves to operate for an extended period after losing multiple locations: “No business would allow itself to pay significantly more for normal operation.” Alshanov expects the company to first prioritize certain services and allocate resources accordingly. 📌 Users of financial services may have to wait longer than others. Before resuming operations, it’s necessary to ensure that transfers and balance changes are correctly recorded and confirmed in multiple locations. Otherwise, errors and disputes about missing payments could arise. “The most important thing with money is the confidence that the transaction is recorded correctly,” explains Alshanov. The unavailability of a balance does not necessarily mean that the money is lost. 📌 Advertising disruptions could be particularly painful for businesses. “Direct” (Yandex’s advertising platform) is likely to be among the priorities for restoration, according to Alshanov: “This is their revenue stream, and they need that money now.” However, advertising campaigns may continue to run without the ability to top up accounts or change settings. For a small store, the loss of customers could be more critical than the temporary unavailability of its online platform. 📌 Some data may be unrecoverable if all copies were stored in one location. Multiple disks protect against the failure of a single storage device, but they could all be destroyed simultaneously in a fire. Therefore, it’s important to have copies in different data centers. Alshanov estimates that Yandex likely distributed its most important data across multiple locations in advance, but companies that rented cloud infrastructure may not have implemented such protection. 📌 New attacks could lead to a complete shutdown of services. If the remaining data centers are taken offline, Yandex, according to Alshanov’s forecast, will halt operations for an indefinite period. The expert sees a broader vulnerability in the concentration of infrastructure within the country: a system without data backups outside of Russia is more susceptible to repeated attacks, which could leave it in a state of limited functionality for a long time. And this is before more server farms are sent to the literal cloud. So expect Ukraine to hit more of these servers at some point. Russia will have an issue restoring service because many of these depend on Western supplies, and Russia is under sanctions. That might explain, in part, why the timeline is so long. But for the business community, this is a problem. And it adds another line of pressure on the Russian civilian economy. Now, let me address the diesel deal, which is about the US Midterms, though the amount will not make any difference. But it gives Putin hope that now the US is turning into an ally of the Russian Federation. This is JD Vance, and I am keeping both as a single post, but they do tell the story. Post One and Two: JD Vance on Russia diesel deal: We saw an opportunity to lower diesel prices. One of the criticisms that you often hear about desanctioning Russia is that somehow it’s going to — well, now the Russians are going to be able to sell their diesel fuel. Well, that is an absurd argument in my view because, Raymond, they’ve always been able to sell their diesel fuel. They’re just selling it at a massive discount to the People’s Republic of China. Meanwhile, our farmers and our consumers have suffered. Trump looked at that and said, “Why are we subsidizing foreign countries? We should make it easier for our own farmers to afford a good life.” And that’s exactly what we’re doing. 🇺🇸‼️ JD Vance on Russia diesel deal: I can assure you that they’re not playing the president of the United States like a fiddle. He’s very realistic about this. The question is, are there ways to work with other countries, even adversarial nations, that can benefit the United States in the process? And I think Trump recognizes that we could disagree with Russia about 50% of issues or even 90% of issues, but if there’s a possibility to lower costs for American farmers, why wouldn’t we take that opportunity? This is a populist move, hoping the president’s base isn’t really paying attention. However, this may be starting to fall flat, or worse, have a boomerang effect. How do I know? Trump posted this in the morning: ![image](https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/0*8g5AAwmnvR-Ae75Z.jpeg) So he is now going back to blaming the war with Iran for the prices? Did he realize that Ukraine is more popular with the people than he believed? So I am offering this as a possibility, though I’m not counting on it staying this way. We are also watching Russia prepare the ground for the war’s expansion. This is via Telegram, but the source is the British Telegraph. So there it is. But looking at undersea cables is what you do to plan for the expansion of the war and go after information, which is the bread and butter of war: Global Fishing Watch data (4.5 years) reveals over 500 incidents of Russian fishing vessels loitering over UK-linked undersea internet cables, with 17 ships mapping infrastructure at low speeds. Tracking highlights include: Ship A spending 337 hours over the Atlantic Crossing 1 cable; Ship B operating near trans-Atlantic links with cargo holds modified to carry USVs/ROVs; Ship C tracking old lines before slowing over live Google (Grace Hopper) and European (Amitié) data links. NATO monitors these commercial spy proxies, noting some civilian boats carry no fish. — The Telegraph ➡️ Undersea fibre-optic cables secure £65bn in UK economic activity, with just two handling 75% of UK–US data capacity. Royal Navy chief Gen Sir Gwyn Jenkins warned of immediate cable attacks if a Russia-NATO conflict starts, citing British fleet shortages. Documented underwater threats include Arctic weapon tests by Russian submarines near Svalbard, a month-long surveillance deployment of three specialized submarines (two Gugi and one Akula-class) in British waters, and a disrupted cable-targeting exercise. The UK will introduce unlimited fines and lengthy prison terms for infrastructure saboteurs. ➡️ Putin’s 2022 maritime doctrine integrates civilian fleets into the navy, authorizing the FSB intelligence agency to co-opt commercial ships for special missions. EU-sanctioned fishing companies Norebo and Murman Seafood deny espionage. However, Scandinavian reports claim a Norebo vessel tracked a U.S. nuclear submarine near Norway, while FOR Group denies carrying hidden Soviet naval radios. Russian maritime access to the UK–Faroe shared fishing zone was restricted following the end of quota exchanges in 2024. Now there is an important detail. Those civilian fleets are no longer neutral and are valid targets under the Geneva Conventions. It is like carrying fighters in an ambulance. It is that bad, and those vessels will be sunk in wartime. Incidentally, Iran has also threatened the cables under the Strait of Hormuz for the same exact reason. It is about communications, and if you need to cut them, this is one way. And speaking of another valid wartime target, here you go: At least 40 educational institutions in Russia are actively involving students in the production of combat drones, according to an investigation by “Vot Tak.” This involves more than just assembling drones: in some universities and technical schools, students are printing parts for ammunition and configuring software. In others, they are modifying drones to make them more lethal. In some cases, Russian security services are “monitoring” the students. This was reported to “Vot Tak” by drone developer Sergey Berstnev. 💬 “If you show off your [male genitalia], we’ll give you [fellatio] too,” he quoted the security forces as saying. In some universities, students are paid for their work with drones. For example, those affiliated with “Rostec” receive corporate scholarships ranging from 30,000 to 55,000 rubles (approximately $367-$672). However, some students are involved in assembling these “weapons of destruction” out of “a sense of duty and enthusiasm” or for the opportunity to leave classes early. ➡️ To find out who is involving students in the production of weapons for the Russian army and how, read the “Vot Tak” investigation on our website or here without a VPN. You can watch the video version at this link. So next time Ukraine hits a school that is used for assembling drones, remember that post. So, to answer the question up at the beginning of this piece. As much as I wish the war would come to an end, it will not come to an end unless the pressure on Ukraine gets so hard that they have no choice. And that is where we are. Our midterms are part of this. So we need to vote. And if this war expands, we have the worst possible leadership in the country’s history. It is also the most corrupt.